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St. Andrew Lions vs Barbados Soccer Academy — Premier League 2019

St. Andrew Lions
St. Andrew Lionsadvanced
FT
5 – 1
Barbados Soccer Academy
Barbados Soccer Academy
5/19/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Relegation Play-offs - Semi-finalsWildey Turf (Sir Garfield Sobers Complex) (Bridgetown)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

St. Andrew Lions53%
×Draw19%
Barbados Soccer Academy28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Andrew Lions
2.52
Barbados Soccer Academy
1.83

St. Andrew Lions creates 38% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 9 away

creates per match

St. Andrew Lions
1.61
Barbados Soccer Academy
0.78

allows per match

St. Andrew Lions
2.87
Barbados Soccer Academy
3.44

finishing

St. Andrew Lions+0.00on par
Barbados Soccer Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Andrew Lions ↓

Barbados Soccer Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

St. Andrew Lions or draw
72%
St. Andrew Lions or Barbados Soccer Academy
81%
Draw or Barbados Soccer Academy
47%

Winning margin

St. Andrew Lions wins by 2+
33%
Barbados Soccer Academy wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

St. Andrew Lions 1+ goals
92%
St. Andrew Lions 2+ goals
71%
St. Andrew Lions 3+ goals
45%
Barbados Soccer Academy 1+ goals
84%
Barbados Soccer Academy 2+ goals
54%
Barbados Soccer Academy 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

St. Andrew Lions (draw refunded)
65%
Barbados Soccer Academy (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Andrew Lions at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.87 · 23 matches

Barbados Soccer Academy away — creates 0.78, concedes 3.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Andrew Lions attack 1.61 + Barbados Soccer Academy defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.52

Barbados Soccer Academy attack 0.78 + St. Andrew Lions defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

St. Andrew Lions scores more
53%
level
19%
Barbados Soccer Academy scores more
28%

St. Andrew Lions at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "St. Andrew Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: St. Andrew Lions 5–1 Barbados Soccer Academy

St. Andrew Lions beat Barbados Soccer Academy 5-1 in Premier League on May 19, 2019.

The match was played at Wildey Turf (Sir Garfield Sobers Complex) (Bridgetown).