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St. Andrä vs SAK Klagenfurt — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

St. Andrä
St. Andrä
FT
1 – 4
SAK Klagenfurt
SAK Klagenfurt
8/15/2021Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 5Stadion Sankt Andrä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

St. Andrä32%
×Draw24%
SAK Klagenfurt44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Andrä
1.42
SAK Klagenfurt
1.71

SAK Klagenfurt creates 20% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 61 away

creates per match

St. Andrä
1.36
SAK Klagenfurt
1.36

allows per match

St. Andrä
2.06
SAK Klagenfurt
1.48

finishing

St. Andrä+0.00on par
SAK Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Andrä ↓

SAK Klagenfurt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

St. Andrä or draw
56%
St. Andrä or SAK Klagenfurt
76%
Draw or SAK Klagenfurt
68%

Winning margin

St. Andrä wins by 2+
15%
SAK Klagenfurt wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

St. Andrä 1+ goals
76%
St. Andrä 2+ goals
41%
St. Andrä 3+ goals
17%
SAK Klagenfurt 1+ goals
82%
SAK Klagenfurt 2+ goals
51%
SAK Klagenfurt 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

St. Andrä (draw refunded)
42%
SAK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Andrä at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.06 · 33 matches

SAK Klagenfurt away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.48 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Andrä attack 1.36 + SAK Klagenfurt defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.42

SAK Klagenfurt attack 1.36 + St. Andrä defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

St. Andrä scores more
32%
level
24%
SAK Klagenfurt scores more
44%

SAK Klagenfurt at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "SAK Klagenfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St. Andrä vs SAK Klagenfurt

SAK Klagenfurt beat St. Andrä 4-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on August 15, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Sankt Andrä in Sankt Andrä.