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St. Andrä vs KAC — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

St. Andrä
St. Andrä
FT
2 – 1
KAC
KAC
6/4/2022Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 32Stadion Sankt Andrä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

St. Andrä35%
×Draw23%
KAC42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Andrä
1.56
KAC
1.73

KAC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 77 away

creates per match

St. Andrä
1.36
KAC
1.40

allows per match

St. Andrä
2.06
KAC
1.75

finishing

St. Andrä+0.00on par
KAC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Andrä ↓

KAC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

St. Andrä or draw
58%
St. Andrä or KAC
77%
Draw or KAC
65%

Winning margin

St. Andrä wins by 2+
17%
KAC wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

St. Andrä 1+ goals
79%
St. Andrä 2+ goals
46%
St. Andrä 3+ goals
21%
KAC 1+ goals
82%
KAC 2+ goals
52%
KAC 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

St. Andrä (draw refunded)
45%
KAC (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Andrä at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.06 · 33 matches

KAC away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.75 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Andrä attack 1.36 + KAC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.56

KAC attack 1.40 + St. Andrä defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

St. Andrä scores more
35%
level
23%
KAC scores more
42%

KAC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "KAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

St. Andrä 2 – 1 KAC

St. Andrä beat KAC 2-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on June 4, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Sankt Andrä in Sankt Andrä.