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St. Andrä vs Feldkirchen Kärnten — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

St. Andrä
St. Andrä
FT
0 – 0
Feldkirchen Kärnten
Feldkirchen Kärnten
3/25/2023Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 22Stadion Sankt Andrä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

St. Andrä37%
×Draw23%
Feldkirchen Kärnten40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Andrä
1.58
Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 47 away

creates per match

St. Andrä
1.36
Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.21

allows per match

St. Andrä
2.06
Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.81

finishing

St. Andrä+0.00on par
Feldkirchen Kärnten+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Andrä ↓

Feldkirchen Kärnten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

St. Andrä or draw
60%
St. Andrä or Feldkirchen Kärnten
77%
Draw or Feldkirchen Kärnten
63%

Winning margin

St. Andrä wins by 2+
18%
Feldkirchen Kärnten wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

St. Andrä 1+ goals
79%
St. Andrä 2+ goals
47%
St. Andrä 3+ goals
21%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 1+ goals
81%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 2+ goals
49%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

St. Andrä (draw refunded)
48%
Feldkirchen Kärnten (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Andrä at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.06 · 33 matches

Feldkirchen Kärnten away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.81 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Andrä attack 1.36 + Feldkirchen Kärnten defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.58

Feldkirchen Kärnten attack 1.21 + St. Andrä defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

St. Andrä scores more
37%
level
23%
Feldkirchen Kärnten scores more
40%

Feldkirchen Kärnten at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Feldkirchen Kärnten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

St. Andrä 0 – 0 Feldkirchen Kärnten

St. Andrä and Feldkirchen Kärnten drew 0-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on March 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Sankt Andrä in Sankt Andrä.