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St. Albans Saints vs Port Melbourne — Victoria NPL 2026

St. Albans Saints
St. Albans Saints
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Port Melbourne
Port Melbourne
L. Byrns 90+8'
J. Divin 49'
J. Gulevski 45+2'
3/23/2025Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 7Churchill Reserve Pitch 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

St. Albans Saints35%
×Draw24%
Port Melbourne42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Albans Saints
1.48
Port Melbourne
1.64

Port Melbourne creates 11% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 76 away

creates per match

St. Albans Saints
1.16
Port Melbourne
1.50

allows per match

St. Albans Saints
1.78
Port Melbourne
1.79

finishing

St. Albans Saints+0.00on par
Port Melbourne+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Albans Saints ↓

Port Melbourne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

St. Albans Saints or draw
58%
St. Albans Saints or Port Melbourne
76%
Draw or Port Melbourne
65%

Winning margin

St. Albans Saints wins by 2+
16%
Port Melbourne wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

St. Albans Saints 1+ goals
77%
St. Albans Saints 2+ goals
43%
St. Albans Saints 3+ goals
19%
Port Melbourne 1+ goals
81%
Port Melbourne 2+ goals
49%
Port Melbourne 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

St. Albans Saints (draw refunded)
46%
Port Melbourne (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Albans Saints at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.78 · 73 matches

Port Melbourne away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.79 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Albans Saints attack 1.16 + Port Melbourne defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.48

Port Melbourne attack 1.50 + St. Albans Saints defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

St. Albans Saints scores more
35%
level
24%
Port Melbourne scores more
42%

Port Melbourne at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Port Melbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+2'
J. Gulevski
49'
J. Divin
90+8'
L. Byrns

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: St. Albans Saints 3–0 Port Melbourne

St. Albans Saints beat Port Melbourne 3-0 in Victoria NPL on March 23, 2025.

Goals: J. Gulevski (45+2'), J. Divin (49'), L. Byrns (90+8').

The match was played at Churchill Reserve Pitch 3 in Melbourne.