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St. Albans Saints vs Moreland City — Victoria NPL 2026

St. Albans Saints
St. Albans Saints
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Moreland City
Moreland City
5/7/2023Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 12Churchill Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

St. Albans Saints54%
×Draw20%
Moreland City26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Albans Saints
2.27
Moreland City
1.54

St. Albans Saints creates 47% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 26 away

creates per match

St. Albans Saints
1.16
Moreland City
1.31

allows per match

St. Albans Saints
1.78
Moreland City
3.38

finishing

St. Albans Saints+0.00on par
Moreland City+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Albans Saints ↓

Moreland City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

St. Albans Saints or draw
74%
St. Albans Saints or Moreland City
80%
Draw or Moreland City
46%

Winning margin

St. Albans Saints wins by 2+
33%
Moreland City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

St. Albans Saints 1+ goals
90%
St. Albans Saints 2+ goals
66%
St. Albans Saints 3+ goals
39%
Moreland City 1+ goals
79%
Moreland City 2+ goals
45%
Moreland City 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

St. Albans Saints (draw refunded)
67%
Moreland City (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Albans Saints at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.78 · 73 matches

Moreland City away — creates 1.31, concedes 3.38 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Albans Saints attack 1.16 + Moreland City defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 2.27

Moreland City attack 1.31 + St. Albans Saints defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

St. Albans Saints scores more
54%
level
20%
Moreland City scores more
26%

St. Albans Saints at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "St. Albans Saints will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St. Albans Saints vs Moreland City

St. Albans Saints beat Moreland City 3-0 in Victoria NPL on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Churchill Reserve in Melbourne.