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SSVg Velbert vs TVD Velbert — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SSVg Velbert
SSVg Velbert
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
TVD Velbert
TVD Velbert
10/25/2024Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 12IMS Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

SSVg Velbert65%
×Draw18%
TVD Velbert16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SSVg Velbert
2.46
TVD Velbert
1.16

SSVg Velbert creates 112% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 72 away

creates per match

SSVg Velbert
2.86
TVD Velbert
1.38

allows per match

SSVg Velbert
0.93
TVD Velbert
2.07

finishing

SSVg Velbert+0.00on par
TVD Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSVg Velbert ↓

TVD Velbert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

SSVg Velbert or draw
84%
SSVg Velbert or TVD Velbert
82%
Draw or TVD Velbert
35%

Winning margin

SSVg Velbert wins by 2+
43%
TVD Velbert wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

SSVg Velbert 1+ goals
91%
SSVg Velbert 2+ goals
70%
SSVg Velbert 3+ goals
44%
TVD Velbert 1+ goals
69%
TVD Velbert 2+ goals
32%
TVD Velbert 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SSVg Velbert (draw refunded)
80%
TVD Velbert (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSVg Velbert at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.93 · 56 matches

TVD Velbert away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.07 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSVg Velbert attack 2.86 + TVD Velbert defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.46

TVD Velbert attack 1.38 + SSVg Velbert defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

SSVg Velbert scores more
65%
level
18%
TVD Velbert scores more
16%

SSVg Velbert at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "SSVg Velbert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: SSVg Velbert 4–0 TVD Velbert

SSVg Velbert beat TVD Velbert 4-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on October 25, 2024.

The match was played at IMS Arena in Velbert.