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SSVg Velbert vs TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SSVg Velbert
SSVg Velbert
CANC
14:00
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
10/24/2020Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 11Stadion Velbert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

SSVg Velbert67%
×Draw18%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SSVg Velbert
2.40
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.06

SSVg Velbert creates 126% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 40 away

creates per match

SSVg Velbert
2.86
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.20

allows per match

SSVg Velbert
0.93
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.95

finishing

SSVg Velbert+0.00on par
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSVg Velbert ↓

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

SSVg Velbert or draw
85%
SSVg Velbert or TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
82%
Draw or TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
33%

Winning margin

SSVg Velbert wins by 2+
44%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

SSVg Velbert 1+ goals
91%
SSVg Velbert 2+ goals
69%
SSVg Velbert 3+ goals
42%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 1+ goals
65%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 2+ goals
29%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

SSVg Velbert (draw refunded)
81%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSVg Velbert at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.93 · 56 matches

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSVg Velbert attack 2.86 + TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.40

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf attack 1.20 + SSVg Velbert defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

SSVg Velbert scores more
67%
level
18%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf scores more
15%

SSVg Velbert at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "SSVg Velbert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SSVg Velbert vs TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf — Match Preview

SSVg Velbert face TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf on October 24, 2020 in this Oberliga - Niederrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

SSVg Velbert host TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf at Stadion Velbert.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.