SSVg Velbert vs Sterkrade-Nord

SSVg Velbert

CANC

19:00

Sterkrade-Nord

12/18/2020

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 20Stadion Velbert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

SSVg Velbert70%

×Draw16%

Sterkrade-Nord14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SSVg VelbertExpected goals in this matchSterkrade-Nord

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.85

1.24

SSVg Velbert

2.85

Sterkrade-Nord

1.24

SSVg Velbert creates 130% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 20 away

2.86

creates per match

1.55

0.93

allows per match

2.85

creates per match

SSVg Velbert

2.86

Sterkrade-Nord

1.55

allows per match

SSVg Velbert

0.93

Sterkrade-Nord

2.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SSVg Velbert+0.00on par

Sterkrade-Nord+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSVg Velbert ↓

Sterkrade-Nord →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

SSVg Velbert or draw

86%

SSVg Velbert or Sterkrade-Nord

84%

Draw or Sterkrade-Nord

30%

Winning margin

SSVg Velbert wins by 2+

49%

Sterkrade-Nord wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

SSVg Velbert 1+ goals

94%

SSVg Velbert 2+ goals

77%

SSVg Velbert 3+ goals

53%

Sterkrade-Nord 1+ goals

71%

Sterkrade-Nord 2+ goals

35%

Sterkrade-Nord 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

SSVg Velbert (draw refunded)

83%

Sterkrade-Nord (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSVg Velbert at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.93 · 56 matches

Sterkrade-Nord away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSVg Velbert attack 2.86 + Sterkrade-Nord defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.85

Sterkrade-Nord attack 1.55 + SSVg Velbert defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

SSVg Velbert scores more

70%

level

16%

Sterkrade-Nord scores more

14%

SSVg Velbert at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "SSVg Velbert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff