SSVg Velbert 4–1 SF Hamborn: Result & Stats

SSVg Velbert

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

SF Hamborn

12/2/2022

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 20IMS Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

SSVg Velbert67%

×Draw17%

SF Hamborn16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SSVg VelbertExpected goals in this matchSF Hamborn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.72

1.28

SSVg Velbert

2.72

SF Hamborn

1.28

SSVg Velbert creates 113% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 37 away

2.86

creates per match

1.62

0.93

allows per match

2.59

creates per match

SSVg Velbert

2.86

SF Hamborn

1.62

allows per match

SSVg Velbert

0.93

SF Hamborn

2.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SSVg Velbert+0.00on par

SF Hamborn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSVg Velbert ↓

SF Hamborn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

SSVg Velbert or draw

84%

SSVg Velbert or SF Hamborn

83%

Draw or SF Hamborn

33%

Winning margin

SSVg Velbert wins by 2+

46%

SF Hamborn wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

SSVg Velbert 1+ goals

93%

SSVg Velbert 2+ goals

75%

SSVg Velbert 3+ goals

50%

SF Hamborn 1+ goals

72%

SF Hamborn 2+ goals

37%

SF Hamborn 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

SSVg Velbert (draw refunded)

81%

SF Hamborn (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSVg Velbert at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.93 · 56 matches

SF Hamborn away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSVg Velbert attack 2.86 + SF Hamborn defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.72

SF Hamborn attack 1.62 + SSVg Velbert defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

SSVg Velbert scores more

67%

level

17%

SF Hamborn scores more

16%

SSVg Velbert at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "SSVg Velbert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff