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SSVg Velbert vs MSV Düsseldorf — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SSVg Velbert
SSVg Velbert
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
MSV Düsseldorf
MSV Düsseldorf
8/5/2022Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 1IMS Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

SSVg Velbert57%
×Draw20%
MSV Düsseldorf24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SSVg Velbert
2.35
MSV Düsseldorf
1.47

SSVg Velbert creates 60% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 20 away

creates per match

SSVg Velbert
2.86
MSV Düsseldorf
2.00

allows per match

SSVg Velbert
0.93
MSV Düsseldorf
1.85

finishing

SSVg Velbert+0.00on par
MSV Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSVg Velbert ↓

MSV Düsseldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

SSVg Velbert or draw
76%
SSVg Velbert or MSV Düsseldorf
80%
Draw or MSV Düsseldorf
43%

Winning margin

SSVg Velbert wins by 2+
36%
MSV Düsseldorf wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SSVg Velbert 1+ goals
90%
SSVg Velbert 2+ goals
68%
SSVg Velbert 3+ goals
41%
MSV Düsseldorf 1+ goals
77%
MSV Düsseldorf 2+ goals
43%
MSV Düsseldorf 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

SSVg Velbert (draw refunded)
71%
MSV Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSVg Velbert at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.93 · 56 matches

MSV Düsseldorf away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSVg Velbert attack 2.86 + MSV Düsseldorf defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.35

MSV Düsseldorf attack 2.00 + SSVg Velbert defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

SSVg Velbert scores more
57%
level
20%
MSV Düsseldorf scores more
24%

SSVg Velbert at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "SSVg Velbert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: SSVg Velbert 1–1 MSV Düsseldorf

SSVg Velbert and MSV Düsseldorf drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on August 5, 2022.

The match was played at IMS Arena in Velbert.