SSV Ulm 1846 2–2 Stuttgart II: Result & Stats

SSV Ulm 1846

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Stuttgart II

S. Telalovic 44'

M. Krattenmacher 8'

D. Tritschler 87'

L. Munst 83'

7/28/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Hauptfeld TSV Aitrach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

SSV Ulm 184642%

×Draw22%

Stuttgart II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SSV Ulm 1846Expected goals in this matchStuttgart II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.81

SSV Ulm 1846

1.94

Stuttgart II

1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.88

creates per match

1.86

1.75

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

SSV Ulm 1846

1.88

Stuttgart II

1.86

allows per match

SSV Ulm 1846

1.75

Stuttgart II

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SSV Ulm 1846+0.00on par

Stuttgart II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSV Ulm 1846 ↓

Stuttgart II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

SSV Ulm 1846 or draw

63%

SSV Ulm 1846 or Stuttgart II

78%

Draw or Stuttgart II

58%

Winning margin

SSV Ulm 1846 wins by 2+

23%

Stuttgart II wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

SSV Ulm 1846 1+ goals

86%

SSV Ulm 1846 2+ goals

58%

SSV Ulm 1846 3+ goals

30%

Stuttgart II 1+ goals

84%

Stuttgart II 2+ goals

54%

Stuttgart II 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

SSV Ulm 1846 (draw refunded)

53%

Stuttgart II (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSV Ulm 1846 at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Stuttgart II away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSV Ulm 1846 attack 1.88 + Stuttgart II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Stuttgart II attack 1.86 + SSV Ulm 1846 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SSV Ulm 1846 scores more

42%

level

22%

Stuttgart II scores more

37%

SSV Ulm 1846 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SSV Ulm 1846 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

M. Krattenmacher

44'

S. Telalovic

83'

L. Munst

87'

D. Tritschler

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff