SSV Ulm 1846 0–1 SCR Altach: Result & Stats

SSV Ulm 1846

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

SCR Altach

O. Diawara 32'

1/12/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Donaustadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

SSV Ulm 184638%

×Draw23%

SCR Altach40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SSV Ulm 1846Expected goals in this matchSCR Altach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.71

SSV Ulm 1846

1.66

SCR Altach

1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

1.89

creates per match

1.43

2.00

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

SSV Ulm 1846

1.89

SCR Altach

1.43

allows per match

SSV Ulm 1846

2.00

SCR Altach

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SSV Ulm 1846+0.00on par

SCR Altach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSV Ulm 1846 ↓

SCR Altach →

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

SSV Ulm 1846 or draw

60%

SSV Ulm 1846 or SCR Altach

77%

Draw or SCR Altach

62%

Winning margin

SSV Ulm 1846 wins by 2+

19%

SCR Altach wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

SSV Ulm 1846 1+ goals

81%

SSV Ulm 1846 2+ goals

49%

SSV Ulm 1846 3+ goals

23%

SCR Altach 1+ goals

82%

SCR Altach 2+ goals

51%

SCR Altach 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

SSV Ulm 1846 (draw refunded)

49%

SCR Altach (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

SSV Ulm 1846 at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

SCR Altach away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

SSV Ulm 1846 attack 1.89 + SCR Altach defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.66

SCR Altach attack 1.43 + SSV Ulm 1846 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

SSV Ulm 1846 scores more

38%

level

23%

SCR Altach scores more

40%

SCR Altach at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SCR Altach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

O. Diawara

SSV

SCR

Manager: Moritz Glasbrenner

Manager: Fabio Ingolitsch