SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hertha BSC — 2. Bundesliga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 17+ matches
SSV Ulm 184637%
Hertha BSC39%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 17 home / 55 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over58
- Under42
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
SSV Ulm 1846 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
SSV Ulm 1846 at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches
Hertha BSC away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.73 · 55 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
SSV Ulm 1846 attack 1.24 + Hertha BSC defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.48
Hertha BSC attack 1.76 + SSV Ulm 1846 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.52
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Hertha BSC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Hertha BSC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Hertha BSC substitutes
Head to Head
FC Schalke 04
SV Elversberg
SC Paderborn 07
Hannover 96
SV Darmstadt 98
1. FC KaiserslauternHertha BSC
1. FC Nürnberg
VfL Bochum
Karlsruher SC
Dynamo Dresden
Holstein Kiel
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Arminia Bielefeld
1. FC Magdeburg
Eintracht Braunschweig
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Preußen Münster
Rot-Weiß EssenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
SSV Ulm 1846 host Hertha BSC on Sunday, 20 April 2025 at 11:30. The match is part of the 2. Bundesliga 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hertha BSC
Hertha BSC beat SSV Ulm 1846 3-2 in 2. Bundesliga on April 20, 2025.
Goals: A. Keller (10'), F. Reese (46', 50'), D. Dressel (56'), F. Niederlechner (84').
SSV Ulm 1846 controlled possession (52%) and registered 10 shots to 13.
The match was played at Donaustadion in Ulm.