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SSV ULM 1846 vs FC Heidenheim — DFB Pokal 2018

SSV ULM 1846
SSV ULM 1846
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
FC Heidenheim
FC Heidenheim
M. Schnatterer 71' (pen)
R. Leipertz 7'
8/10/2019DFB PokalDFB Pokal · 1st RoundDonaustadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

SSV ULM 184617%
×Draw19%
FC Heidenheim63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SSV ULM 1846
1.13
FC Heidenheim
2.31

FC Heidenheim creates 104% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

creates per match

SSV ULM 1846
0.75
FC Heidenheim
2.50

allows per match

SSV ULM 1846
2.13
FC Heidenheim
1.50

finishing

SSV ULM 1846+0.00on par
FC Heidenheim+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSV ULM 1846 ↓

FC Heidenheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

SSV ULM 1846 or draw
37%
SSV ULM 1846 or FC Heidenheim
81%
Draw or FC Heidenheim
83%

Winning margin

SSV ULM 1846 wins by 2+
6%
FC Heidenheim wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

SSV ULM 1846 1+ goals
68%
SSV ULM 1846 2+ goals
31%
SSV ULM 1846 3+ goals
11%
FC Heidenheim 1+ goals
90%
FC Heidenheim 2+ goals
67%
FC Heidenheim 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

SSV ULM 1846 (draw refunded)
22%
FC Heidenheim (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSV ULM 1846 at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

FC Heidenheim away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSV ULM 1846 attack 0.75 + FC Heidenheim defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.13

FC Heidenheim attack 2.50 + SSV ULM 1846 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

SSV ULM 1846 scores more
17%
level
19%
FC Heidenheim scores more
63%

FC Heidenheim at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "FC Heidenheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
K. MüllerFC HeidenheimFC Heidenheim · G
8.1

Match Events

7'
R. Leipertz↳ J. Föhrenbach
56'
S. Schimmer← K. Sessa
57'
Ardian Morina
60'
B. Coban← A. Abruscia
71'
M. SchnattererPenalty
76'
F. Higl← M. Schindele
76'
M. Biankadi← M. Schnatterer
81'
S. Kienle← A. Morina
82'
Florian Krebs
82'
M. Multhaup← R. Leipertz
90'
Niklas Dorsch

Possession

40%SSV

Shots

11SSV

Pass accuracy

47%SSV

Statistics

SSVFC
Overview
40%Possession60%
11Total Shots17
2Corners6
12Fouls11
Shots
11Total Shots17
5On Target8
3Off Target7
3Blocked2
9Inside Box11
2Outside Box6
Passing
40%Possession60%
339Total Passes513
245Accurate Passes419
72%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
6Saves5
Discipline
12Fouls11
2Yellow Cards1
5Offsides3

Match Recap: SSV ULM 1846 vs FC Heidenheim

FC Heidenheim beat SSV ULM 1846 2-0 in DFB Pokal on August 10, 2019.

Goals: R. Leipertz (7'), M. Schnatterer (71' pen).

FC Heidenheim controlled possession (60%) and registered 17 shots to 11.

The match was played at Donaustadion in Ulm.