SSV ULM 1846 2–1 Eintracht Frankfurt

SSV ULM 1846

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Eintracht Frankfurt

V. Lux 75'

S. Kienle 48'

Gonçalo Paciência 90'

8/18/2018

DFB Pokal · 1st RoundDonaustadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

SSV ULM 184618%

×Draw20%

Eintracht Frankfurt62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SSV ULM 1846Expected goals in this matchEintracht Frankfurt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

2.21

SSV ULM 1846

1.09

Eintracht Frankfurt

2.21

Eintracht Frankfurt creates 103% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 18 away

0.75

creates per match

2.28

2.13

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

SSV ULM 1846

0.75

Eintracht Frankfurt

2.28

allows per match

SSV ULM 1846

2.13

Eintracht Frankfurt

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SSV ULM 1846+0.00on par

Eintracht Frankfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSV ULM 1846 ↓

Eintracht Frankfurt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

SSV ULM 1846 or draw

38%

SSV ULM 1846 or Eintracht Frankfurt

80%

Draw or Eintracht Frankfurt

82%

Winning margin

SSV ULM 1846 wins by 2+

6%

Eintracht Frankfurt wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

SSV ULM 1846 1+ goals

66%

SSV ULM 1846 2+ goals

30%

SSV ULM 1846 3+ goals

10%

Eintracht Frankfurt 1+ goals

89%

Eintracht Frankfurt 2+ goals

65%

Eintracht Frankfurt 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

SSV ULM 1846 (draw refunded)

22%

Eintracht Frankfurt (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSV ULM 1846 at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

Eintracht Frankfurt away — creates 2.28, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSV ULM 1846 attack 0.75 + Eintracht Frankfurt defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.09

Eintracht Frankfurt attack 2.28 + SSV ULM 1846 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

SSV ULM 1846 scores more

18%

level

20%

Eintracht Frankfurt scores more

62%

Eintracht Frankfurt at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Eintracht Frankfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

J. de Guzmán

Eintracht Frankfurt · M

7.8

Match Events

37'

Carlos Salcedo

48'

S. Kienle

63'

M. Schmidts← A. Morina

65'

Luigi Campagna

70'

D. Blum← J. Willems

75'

V. Lux↳ L. Campagna

79'

D. Braig← V. Lux

79'

N. Müller← C. Salcedo

82'

L. Hoffmann← S. Kienle

83'

Gonçalo Paciência← Lucas Torró

84'

89'

90'

90'

90'

Gonçalo Paciência↳ D. Blum

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SSVEintracht

Overview

27%Possession73%

14Total Shots17

3Corners8

18Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots17

6On Target5

6Off Target8

2Blocked4

12Inside Box15

2Outside Box2

Passing

27%Possession73%

185Total Passes493

105Accurate Passes387

57%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls12

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

3Offsides2

DFB Pokal: SSV ULM 1846 2–1 Eintracht Frankfurt

SSV ULM 1846 beat Eintracht Frankfurt 2-1 in DFB Pokal on August 18, 2018.

Goals: S. Kienle (48'), V. Lux (75'), Gonçalo Paciência (90').

Eintracht Frankfurt controlled possession (73%) and registered 17 shots to 14.

The match was played at Donaustadion in Ulm.

SSV ULM 1846 vs Eintracht Frankfurt — DFB Pokal 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DFB Pokal: SSV ULM 1846 2–1 Eintracht Frankfurt