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SSV Ulm 1846 vs Bonner SC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

SSV Ulm 1846
SSV Ulm 1846
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bonner SC
Bonner SC
1/5/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

SSV Ulm 184640%
×Draw21%
Bonner SC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SSV Ulm 1846
1.94
Bonner SC
1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

SSV Ulm 1846
1.88
Bonner SC
2.00

allows per match

SSV Ulm 1846
1.75
Bonner SC
2.00

finishing

SSV Ulm 1846+0.00on par
Bonner SC+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSV Ulm 1846 ↓

Bonner SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

SSV Ulm 1846 or draw
62%
SSV Ulm 1846 or Bonner SC
79%
Draw or Bonner SC
60%

Winning margin

SSV Ulm 1846 wins by 2+
22%
Bonner SC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

SSV Ulm 1846 1+ goals
86%
SSV Ulm 1846 2+ goals
58%
SSV Ulm 1846 3+ goals
30%
Bonner SC 1+ goals
85%
Bonner SC 2+ goals
56%
Bonner SC 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

SSV Ulm 1846 (draw refunded)
51%
Bonner SC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSV Ulm 1846 at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Bonner SC away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSV Ulm 1846 attack 1.88 + Bonner SC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Bonner SC attack 2.00 + SSV Ulm 1846 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SSV Ulm 1846 scores more
40%
level
21%
Bonner SC scores more
38%

SSV Ulm 1846 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SSV Ulm 1846 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

SSV
Bonner
Pavel Dotchev
Manager: Pavel Dotchev
D. Zillken
Manager: D. Zillken

Match Recap: SSV Ulm 1846 vs Bonner SC

SSV Ulm 1846 beat Bonner SC 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 5, 2026.