SSV Ulm 1846 vs 1. FC Köln — 2. Bundesliga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 17+ matches
SSV Ulm 184632%
1. FC Köln41%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
1. FC Köln creates 17% more chances
Season form · 17 home / 32 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
SSV Ulm 1846 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
SSV Ulm 1846 at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches
1. FC Köln away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.06 · 32 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
SSV Ulm 1846 attack 1.24 + 1. FC Köln defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.15
1. FC Köln attack 1.41 + SSV Ulm 1846 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.35
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
1. FC Köln at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "1. FC Köln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
FC Schalke 04
SV Elversberg
SC Paderborn 07
Hannover 96
SV Darmstadt 98
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Hertha BSC
1. FC Nürnberg
VfL Bochum
Karlsruher SC
Dynamo Dresden
Holstein Kiel
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Arminia Bielefeld
1. FC Magdeburg
Eintracht Braunschweig
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Preußen Münster
Rot-Weiß EssenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
SSV Ulm 1846 host 1. FC Köln on Saturday, 8 March 2025 at 12:00. The match is part of the 2. Bundesliga 2018/2019 season.
2. Bundesliga: SSV Ulm 1846 0–1 1. FC Köln
1. FC Köln beat SSV Ulm 1846 1-0 in 2. Bundesliga on March 8, 2025.
Goals: L. Waldschmidt (86').
1. FC Köln controlled possession (55%) and registered 13 shots to 15.
The match was played at Donaustadion in Ulm.