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SSV Merten vs Union Schafhausen — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

SSV Merten
SSV Merten
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Union Schafhausen
Union Schafhausen
10/20/2024Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 9MerKur Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

SSV Merten73%
×Draw15%
Union Schafhausen12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SSV Merten
2.79
Union Schafhausen
1.07

SSV Merten creates 161% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 29 away

creates per match

SSV Merten
2.97
Union Schafhausen
0.97

allows per match

SSV Merten
1.17
Union Schafhausen
2.62

finishing

SSV Merten+0.00on par
Union Schafhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSV Merten ↓

Union Schafhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

SSV Merten or draw
88%
SSV Merten or Union Schafhausen
85%
Draw or Union Schafhausen
27%

Winning margin

SSV Merten wins by 2+
52%
Union Schafhausen wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

SSV Merten 1+ goals
94%
SSV Merten 2+ goals
76%
SSV Merten 3+ goals
52%
Union Schafhausen 1+ goals
66%
Union Schafhausen 2+ goals
29%
Union Schafhausen 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

SSV Merten (draw refunded)
86%
Union Schafhausen (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSV Merten at home — creates 2.97, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

Union Schafhausen away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSV Merten attack 2.97 + Union Schafhausen defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.79

Union Schafhausen attack 0.97 + SSV Merten defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

SSV Merten scores more
73%
level
15%
Union Schafhausen scores more
12%

SSV Merten at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "SSV Merten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SSV Merten vs Union Schafhausen

SSV Merten beat Union Schafhausen 2-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at MerKur Kunstrasenplatz in Bornheim.