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SSV Merten vs Hürth — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

SSV Merten
SSV Merten
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Hürth
Hürth
5/1/2025Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 23MerKur Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

SSV Merten63%
×Draw18%
Hürth18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SSV Merten
2.50
Hürth
1.29

SSV Merten creates 94% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 66 away

creates per match

SSV Merten
2.97
Hürth
1.41

allows per match

SSV Merten
1.17
Hürth
2.03

finishing

SSV Merten+0.00on par
Hürth+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSV Merten ↓

Hürth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

SSV Merten or draw
82%
SSV Merten or Hürth
82%
Draw or Hürth
37%

Winning margin

SSV Merten wins by 2+
42%
Hürth wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

SSV Merten 1+ goals
92%
SSV Merten 2+ goals
71%
SSV Merten 3+ goals
45%
Hürth 1+ goals
72%
Hürth 2+ goals
37%
Hürth 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

SSV Merten (draw refunded)
77%
Hürth (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSV Merten at home — creates 2.97, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

Hürth away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.03 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSV Merten attack 2.97 + Hürth defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.50

Hürth attack 1.41 + SSV Merten defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

SSV Merten scores more
63%
level
18%
Hürth scores more
18%

SSV Merten at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "SSV Merten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: SSV Merten 2–2 Hürth

SSV Merten and Hürth drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on May 1, 2025.

The match was played at MerKur Kunstrasenplatz in Bornheim.