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SSV Jeddeloh vs St. Pauli II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

SSV Jeddeloh
SSV Jeddeloh
CANC
12:00
St. Pauli II
St. Pauli II
1/27/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

SSV Jeddeloh43%
×Draw21%
St. Pauli II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SSV Jeddeloh
2.00
St. Pauli II
1.82

SSV Jeddeloh creates 10% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

creates per match

SSV Jeddeloh
2.50
St. Pauli II
1.25

allows per match

SSV Jeddeloh
2.40
St. Pauli II
1.50

finishing

SSV Jeddeloh+0.00on par
St. Pauli II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSV Jeddeloh ↓

St. Pauli II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

SSV Jeddeloh or draw
64%
SSV Jeddeloh or St. Pauli II
79%
Draw or St. Pauli II
57%

Winning margin

SSV Jeddeloh wins by 2+
24%
St. Pauli II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

SSV Jeddeloh 1+ goals
86%
SSV Jeddeloh 2+ goals
59%
SSV Jeddeloh 3+ goals
32%
St. Pauli II 1+ goals
84%
St. Pauli II 2+ goals
54%
St. Pauli II 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

SSV Jeddeloh (draw refunded)
54%
St. Pauli II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSV Jeddeloh at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

St. Pauli II away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSV Jeddeloh attack 2.50 + St. Pauli II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.00

St. Pauli II attack 1.25 + SSV Jeddeloh defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SSV Jeddeloh scores more
43%
level
21%
St. Pauli II scores more
36%

SSV Jeddeloh at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SSV Jeddeloh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: SSV Jeddeloh host St. Pauli II

January 27, 2024: SSV Jeddeloh take on St. Pauli II in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

SSV Jeddeloh host St. Pauli II at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.