SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FSV Zwickau

SSV Jahn Regensburg

CANC

14:00

FSV Zwickau

1/8/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Sportpark am Kaulbachweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

SSV Jahn Regensburg52%

×Draw19%

FSV Zwickau29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SSV Jahn RegensburgExpected goals in this matchFSV Zwickau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

1.98

SSV Jahn Regensburg

2.67

FSV Zwickau

1.98

SSV Jahn Regensburg creates 35% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

2.67

creates per match

3.17

0.78

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

SSV Jahn Regensburg

2.67

FSV Zwickau

3.17

allows per match

SSV Jahn Regensburg

0.78

FSV Zwickau

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SSV Jahn Regensburg+0.00on par

FSV Zwickau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSV Jahn Regensburg ↓

FSV Zwickau →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–42%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

SSV Jahn Regensburg or draw

71%

SSV Jahn Regensburg or FSV Zwickau

81%

Draw or FSV Zwickau

48%

Winning margin

SSV Jahn Regensburg wins by 2+

33%

FSV Zwickau wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

SSV Jahn Regensburg 1+ goals

93%

SSV Jahn Regensburg 2+ goals

74%

SSV Jahn Regensburg 3+ goals

49%

FSV Zwickau 1+ goals

86%

FSV Zwickau 2+ goals

59%

FSV Zwickau 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

SSV Jahn Regensburg (draw refunded)

64%

FSV Zwickau (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

SSV Jahn Regensburg at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

FSV Zwickau away — creates 3.17, concedes 2.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 2.67 + FSV Zwickau defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.67

FSV Zwickau attack 3.17 + SSV Jahn Regensburg defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

SSV Jahn Regensburg scores more

52%

level

19%

FSV Zwickau scores more

29%

SSV Jahn Regensburg at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "SSV Jahn Regensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff