SSU Poli Timişoara W 10–0 Universitatea Galaţi W

SSU Poli Timişoara W

FT

10 – 0

Universitatea Galaţi W

11/14/2021

Liga 1 Feminin · Round 9Stadionul Ştiinţa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

SSU Poli Timişoara W88%

×Draw7%

Universitatea Galaţi W4%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SSU Poli Timişoara WExpected goals in this matchUniversitatea Galaţi W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.17

0.91

SSU Poli Timişoara W

4.17

Universitatea Galaţi W

0.91

SSU Poli Timişoara W creates 358% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 31 away

3.54

creates per match

0.74

1.08

allows per match

4.81

creates per match

SSU Poli Timişoara W

3.54

Universitatea Galaţi W

0.74

allows per match

SSU Poli Timişoara W

1.08

Universitatea Galaţi W

4.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SSU Poli Timişoara W+0.00on par

Universitatea Galaţi W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSU Poli Timişoara W ↓

Universitatea Galaţi W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–13%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–18%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

SSU Poli Timişoara W or draw

96%

SSU Poli Timişoara W or Universitatea Galaţi W

93%

Draw or Universitatea Galaţi W

12%

Winning margin

SSU Poli Timişoara W wins by 2+

75%

Universitatea Galaţi W wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

SSU Poli Timişoara W 1+ goals

98%

SSU Poli Timişoara W 2+ goals

91%

SSU Poli Timişoara W 3+ goals

75%

Universitatea Galaţi W 1+ goals

60%

Universitatea Galaţi W 2+ goals

23%

Universitatea Galaţi W 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

SSU Poli Timişoara W (draw refunded)

96%

Universitatea Galaţi W (draw refunded)

4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSU Poli Timişoara W at home — creates 3.54, concedes 1.08 · 48 matches

Universitatea Galaţi W away — creates 0.74, concedes 4.81 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSU Poli Timişoara W attack 3.54 + Universitatea Galaţi W defence 4.81 → ÷2 → 4.17

Universitatea Galaţi W attack 0.74 + SSU Poli Timişoara W defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

SSU Poli Timişoara W scores more

88%

level

7%

Universitatea Galaţi W scores more

4%

SSU Poli Timişoara W at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "SSU Poli Timişoara W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff