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SSU Poli Timişoara W vs Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

SSU Poli Timişoara W
SSU Poli Timişoara W
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
12/7/2025Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

SSU Poli Timişoara W58%
×Draw19%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SSU Poli Timişoara W
2.45
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
1.50

SSU Poli Timişoara W creates 63% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 39 away

creates per match

SSU Poli Timişoara W
3.54
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
1.92

allows per match

SSU Poli Timişoara W
1.08
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
1.36

finishing

SSU Poli Timişoara W+0.00on par
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSU Poli Timişoara W ↓

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

SSU Poli Timişoara W or draw
77%
SSU Poli Timişoara W or Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
81%
Draw or Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
42%

Winning margin

SSU Poli Timişoara W wins by 2+
37%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SSU Poli Timişoara W 1+ goals
91%
SSU Poli Timişoara W 2+ goals
70%
SSU Poli Timişoara W 3+ goals
44%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 1+ goals
78%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 2+ goals
44%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

SSU Poli Timişoara W (draw refunded)
72%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSU Poli Timişoara W at home — creates 3.54, concedes 1.08 · 48 matches

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.36 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSU Poli Timişoara W attack 3.54 + Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 2.45

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W attack 1.92 + SSU Poli Timişoara W defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

SSU Poli Timişoara W scores more
58%
level
19%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W scores more
23%

SSU Poli Timişoara W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "SSU Poli Timişoara W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1 Feminin: SSU Poli Timişoara W 4–2 Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W

SSU Poli Timişoara W beat Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 4-2 in Liga 1 Feminin on December 7, 2025.