SSU Poli Timişoara W 6–0 Fairplay Bucureşti W

SSU Poli Timişoara W

FT

6 – 0

Fairplay Bucureşti W

11/6/2022

Liga 1 Feminin · Round 8Stadionul Ştiinţa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

SSU Poli Timişoara W79%

×Draw12%

Fairplay Bucureşti W9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SSU Poli Timişoara WExpected goals in this matchFairplay Bucureşti W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.71

1.29

SSU Poli Timişoara W

3.71

Fairplay Bucureşti W

1.29

SSU Poli Timişoara W creates 188% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 32 away

3.54

creates per match

1.50

1.08

allows per match

3.88

creates per match

SSU Poli Timişoara W

3.54

Fairplay Bucureşti W

1.50

allows per match

SSU Poli Timişoara W

1.08

Fairplay Bucureşti W

3.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SSU Poli Timişoara W+0.00on par

Fairplay Bucureşti W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSU Poli Timişoara W ↓

Fairplay Bucureşti W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

SSU Poli Timişoara W or draw

91%

SSU Poli Timişoara W or Fairplay Bucureşti W

88%

Draw or Fairplay Bucureşti W

21%

Winning margin

SSU Poli Timişoara W wins by 2+

62%

Fairplay Bucureşti W wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

SSU Poli Timişoara W 1+ goals

97%

SSU Poli Timişoara W 2+ goals

87%

SSU Poli Timişoara W 3+ goals

69%

Fairplay Bucureşti W 1+ goals

72%

Fairplay Bucureşti W 2+ goals

37%

Fairplay Bucureşti W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

SSU Poli Timişoara W (draw refunded)

89%

Fairplay Bucureşti W (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSU Poli Timişoara W at home — creates 3.54, concedes 1.08 · 48 matches

Fairplay Bucureşti W away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.88 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSU Poli Timişoara W attack 3.54 + Fairplay Bucureşti W defence 3.88 → ÷2 → 3.71

Fairplay Bucureşti W attack 1.50 + SSU Poli Timişoara W defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

SSU Poli Timişoara W scores more

79%

level

12%

Fairplay Bucureşti W scores more

9%

SSU Poli Timişoara W at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "SSU Poli Timişoara W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff