SSU Poli Timişoara W 2–2 Carmen București W

SSU Poli Timişoara W

FT

2 – 2

Carmen București W

4/30/2023

Liga 1 Feminin · Championship Round - 6Stadionul Ştiinţa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

SSU Poli Timişoara W62%

×Draw17%

Carmen București W21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SSU Poli Timişoara WExpected goals in this matchCarmen București W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.96

1.70

SSU Poli Timişoara W

2.96

Carmen București W

1.70

SSU Poli Timişoara W creates 74% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 19 away

3.54

creates per match

2.32

1.08

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

SSU Poli Timişoara W

3.54

Carmen București W

2.32

allows per match

SSU Poli Timişoara W

1.08

Carmen București W

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SSU Poli Timişoara W+0.00on par

Carmen București W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSU Poli Timişoara W ↓

Carmen București W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

SSU Poli Timişoara W or draw

79%

SSU Poli Timişoara W or Carmen București W

83%

Draw or Carmen București W

38%

Winning margin

SSU Poli Timişoara W wins by 2+

43%

Carmen București W wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

SSU Poli Timişoara W 1+ goals

95%

SSU Poli Timişoara W 2+ goals

79%

SSU Poli Timişoara W 3+ goals

55%

Carmen București W 1+ goals

82%

Carmen București W 2+ goals

51%

Carmen București W 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

SSU Poli Timişoara W (draw refunded)

75%

Carmen București W (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSU Poli Timişoara W at home — creates 3.54, concedes 1.08 · 48 matches

Carmen București W away — creates 2.32, concedes 2.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSU Poli Timişoara W attack 3.54 + Carmen București W defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.96

Carmen București W attack 2.32 + SSU Poli Timişoara W defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

SSU Poli Timişoara W scores more

62%

level

17%

Carmen București W scores more

21%

SSU Poli Timişoara W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "SSU Poli Timişoara W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff