SSU Poli Timişoara W 3–1 Banat Girls W

SSU Poli Timişoara W

FT

3 – 1

Banat Girls W

10/14/2023

Liga 1 Feminin · Round 6Stadionul Ştiinţa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

SSU Poli Timişoara W75%

×Draw14%

Banat Girls W11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SSU Poli Timişoara WExpected goals in this matchBanat Girls W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.16

1.19

SSU Poli Timişoara W

3.16

Banat Girls W

1.19

SSU Poli Timişoara W creates 166% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 43 away

3.54

creates per match

1.30

1.08

allows per match

2.77

creates per match

SSU Poli Timişoara W

3.54

Banat Girls W

1.30

allows per match

SSU Poli Timişoara W

1.08

Banat Girls W

2.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SSU Poli Timişoara W+0.00on par

Banat Girls W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSU Poli Timişoara W ↓

Banat Girls W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

SSU Poli Timişoara W or draw

89%

SSU Poli Timişoara W or Banat Girls W

86%

Draw or Banat Girls W

25%

Winning margin

SSU Poli Timişoara W wins by 2+

56%

Banat Girls W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

SSU Poli Timişoara W 1+ goals

96%

SSU Poli Timişoara W 2+ goals

82%

SSU Poli Timişoara W 3+ goals

59%

Banat Girls W 1+ goals

70%

Banat Girls W 2+ goals

33%

Banat Girls W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

SSU Poli Timişoara W (draw refunded)

87%

Banat Girls W (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSU Poli Timişoara W at home — creates 3.54, concedes 1.08 · 48 matches

Banat Girls W away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.77 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSU Poli Timişoara W attack 3.54 + Banat Girls W defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 3.16

Banat Girls W attack 1.30 + SSU Poli Timişoara W defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

SSU Poli Timişoara W scores more

75%

level

14%

Banat Girls W scores more

11%

SSU Poli Timişoara W at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "SSU Poli Timişoara W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff