SSA 2–0 Teixeira de Freitas: Result & Stats

SSA

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Teixeira de Freitas

5/11/2025

Baiano - 2 · Round 3Estádio Alberto Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

SSA85%

×Draw12%

Teixeira de Freitas3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SSAExpected goals in this matchTeixeira de Freitas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

0.32

SSA

2.48

Teixeira de Freitas

0.32

SSA creates 675% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

1.71

creates per match

0.00

0.64

allows per match

3.25

creates per match

SSA

1.71

Teixeira de Freitas

0.00

allows per match

SSA

0.64

Teixeira de Freitas

3.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SSA+0.00on par

Teixeira de Freitas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No75
Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSA ↓

Teixeira de Freitas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–12%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–019%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–016%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–13%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (19%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

SSA or draw

97%

SSA or Teixeira de Freitas

88%

Draw or Teixeira de Freitas

15%

Winning margin

SSA wins by 2+

62%

Teixeira de Freitas wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

SSA 1+ goals

92%

SSA 2+ goals

70%

SSA 3+ goals

44%

Teixeira de Freitas 1+ goals

27%

Teixeira de Freitas 2+ goals

4%

Teixeira de Freitas 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

SSA (draw refunded)

96%

Teixeira de Freitas (draw refunded)

4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSA at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Teixeira de Freitas away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSA attack 1.71 + Teixeira de Freitas defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.48

Teixeira de Freitas attack 0.00 + SSA defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

SSA scores more

85%

level

12%

Teixeira de Freitas scores more

3%

SSA at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "SSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff