SSA U20 2–0 Leonico U20: Result & Stats

SSA U20

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Leonico U20

5/11/2024

Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Governador Roberto Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

SSA U2065%

×Draw19%

Leonico U2016%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SSA U20Expected goals in this matchLeonico U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.02

SSA U20

2.26

Leonico U20

1.02

SSA U20 creates 122% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

1.62

creates per match

0.75

1.29

allows per match

2.90

creates per match

SSA U20

1.62

Leonico U20

0.75

allows per match

SSA U20

1.29

Leonico U20

2.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SSA U20+0.00on par

Leonico U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SSA U20 ↓

Leonico U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

SSA U20 or draw

84%

SSA U20 or Leonico U20

81%

Draw or Leonico U20

35%

Winning margin

SSA U20 wins by 2+

42%

Leonico U20 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

SSA U20 1+ goals

89%

SSA U20 2+ goals

66%

SSA U20 3+ goals

39%

Leonico U20 1+ goals

64%

Leonico U20 2+ goals

27%

Leonico U20 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

SSA U20 (draw refunded)

80%

Leonico U20 (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SSA U20 at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

Leonico U20 away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SSA U20 attack 1.62 + Leonico U20 defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.26

Leonico U20 attack 0.75 + SSA U20 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

SSA U20 scores more

65%

level

19%

Leonico U20 scores more

16%

SSA U20 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "SSA U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff