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SS Sfaxien vs Oued Ellil — Ligue 2 2020

SS Sfaxien
SS Sfaxien
FT
4 – 3
Oued Ellil
Oued Ellil
3/28/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 9Stade 2 Mars

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

SS Sfaxien43%
×Draw30%
Oued Ellil28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SS Sfaxien
1.19
Oued Ellil
0.90

SS Sfaxien creates 32% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 46 away

creates per match

SS Sfaxien
1.00
Oued Ellil
0.65

allows per match

SS Sfaxien
1.14
Oued Ellil
1.37

finishing

SS Sfaxien+0.00on par
Oued Ellil+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SS Sfaxien ↓

Oued Ellil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

SS Sfaxien or draw
72%
SS Sfaxien or Oued Ellil
70%
Draw or Oued Ellil
57%

Winning margin

SS Sfaxien wins by 2+
18%
Oued Ellil wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SS Sfaxien 1+ goals
70%
SS Sfaxien 2+ goals
33%
SS Sfaxien 3+ goals
12%
Oued Ellil 1+ goals
59%
Oued Ellil 2+ goals
23%
Oued Ellil 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

SS Sfaxien (draw refunded)
61%
Oued Ellil (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SS Sfaxien at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Oued Ellil away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.37 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SS Sfaxien attack 1.00 + Oued Ellil defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.19

Oued Ellil attack 0.65 + SS Sfaxien defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SS Sfaxien scores more
43%
level
30%
Oued Ellil scores more
28%

SS Sfaxien at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SS Sfaxien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SS Sfaxien vs Oued Ellil

SS Sfaxien beat Oued Ellil 4-3 in Ligue 2 on March 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stade 2 Mars in Sfax.