Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SS Sfaxien vs Kalaâ Sport — Ligue 2 2020

SS Sfaxien
SS Sfaxien
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kalaâ Sport
Kalaâ Sport
C. Dhifallah 70' (pen)
R. Nalouti 19'
M. Soltane 24' (pen)
3/6/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 9Stade 2 Mars

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

SS Sfaxien44%
×Draw29%
Kalaâ Sport27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SS Sfaxien
1.25
Kalaâ Sport
0.92

SS Sfaxien creates 36% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 61 away

creates per match

SS Sfaxien
1.00
Kalaâ Sport
0.70

allows per match

SS Sfaxien
1.14
Kalaâ Sport
1.51

finishing

SS Sfaxien+0.00on par
Kalaâ Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SS Sfaxien ↓

Kalaâ Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

SS Sfaxien or draw
73%
SS Sfaxien or Kalaâ Sport
71%
Draw or Kalaâ Sport
56%

Winning margin

SS Sfaxien wins by 2+
20%
Kalaâ Sport wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

SS Sfaxien 1+ goals
71%
SS Sfaxien 2+ goals
36%
SS Sfaxien 3+ goals
13%
Kalaâ Sport 1+ goals
60%
Kalaâ Sport 2+ goals
23%
Kalaâ Sport 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

SS Sfaxien (draw refunded)
62%
Kalaâ Sport (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SS Sfaxien at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Kalaâ Sport away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.51 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SS Sfaxien attack 1.00 + Kalaâ Sport defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.25

Kalaâ Sport attack 0.70 + SS Sfaxien defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

SS Sfaxien scores more
44%
level
29%
Kalaâ Sport scores more
27%

SS Sfaxien at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "SS Sfaxien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
R. Nalouti
24'
M. SoltanePenalty
70'
C. DhifallahPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SS Sfaxien vs Kalaâ Sport

SS Sfaxien beat Kalaâ Sport 2-1 in Ligue 2 on March 6, 2022.

Goals: R. Nalouti (19'), M. Soltane (24' pen), C. Dhifallah (70' pen).

The match was played at Stade 2 Mars in Sfax.