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SS Sfaxien vs Djerba — Ligue 2 2020

SS Sfaxien
SS Sfaxien
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Djerba
Djerba
5/6/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 19Stade d'Athlétisme 2 Mars 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

SS Sfaxien44%
×Draw30%
Djerba26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SS Sfaxien
1.18
Djerba
0.84

SS Sfaxien creates 40% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

creates per match

SS Sfaxien
1.00
Djerba
0.55

allows per match

SS Sfaxien
1.14
Djerba
1.36

finishing

SS Sfaxien+0.00on par
Djerba+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SS Sfaxien ↓

Djerba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

SS Sfaxien or draw
74%
SS Sfaxien or Djerba
70%
Draw or Djerba
56%

Winning margin

SS Sfaxien wins by 2+
19%
Djerba wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

SS Sfaxien 1+ goals
69%
SS Sfaxien 2+ goals
33%
SS Sfaxien 3+ goals
12%
Djerba 1+ goals
57%
Djerba 2+ goals
21%
Djerba 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

SS Sfaxien (draw refunded)
63%
Djerba (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SS Sfaxien at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Djerba away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SS Sfaxien attack 1.00 + Djerba defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18

Djerba attack 0.55 + SS Sfaxien defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

SS Sfaxien scores more
44%
level
30%
Djerba scores more
26%

SS Sfaxien at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "SS Sfaxien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: SS Sfaxien 1–0 Djerba

SS Sfaxien beat Djerba 1-0 in Ligue 2 on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stade d'Athlétisme 2 Mars 2 in Safāqis.