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SS Sfaxien vs CS Hammam-Lif — Ligue 2 2020

SS Sfaxien
SS Sfaxien
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
CS Hammam-Lif
CS Hammam-Lif
B. Khefifi 21'
3/25/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 15Stade 2 Mars

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

SS Sfaxien35%
×Draw30%
CS Hammam-Lif35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SS Sfaxien
1.02
CS Hammam-Lif
1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 55 away

creates per match

SS Sfaxien
1.00
CS Hammam-Lif
0.93

allows per match

SS Sfaxien
1.14
CS Hammam-Lif
1.05

finishing

SS Sfaxien+0.00on par
CS Hammam-Lif+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SS Sfaxien ↓

CS Hammam-Lif →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

SS Sfaxien or draw
65%
SS Sfaxien or CS Hammam-Lif
70%
Draw or CS Hammam-Lif
65%

Winning margin

SS Sfaxien wins by 2+
13%
CS Hammam-Lif wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

SS Sfaxien 1+ goals
64%
SS Sfaxien 2+ goals
27%
SS Sfaxien 3+ goals
8%
CS Hammam-Lif 1+ goals
64%
CS Hammam-Lif 2+ goals
28%
CS Hammam-Lif 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

SS Sfaxien (draw refunded)
50%
CS Hammam-Lif (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SS Sfaxien at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

CS Hammam-Lif away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.05 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SS Sfaxien attack 1.00 + CS Hammam-Lif defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

CS Hammam-Lif attack 0.93 + SS Sfaxien defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

SS Sfaxien scores more
35%
level
30%
CS Hammam-Lif scores more
35%

SS Sfaxien at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "SS Sfaxien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
B. Khefifi
54'
L. Zarrouk

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: SS Sfaxien 0–1 CS Hammam-Lif

CS Hammam-Lif beat SS Sfaxien 1-0 in Ligue 2 on March 25, 2023.

Goals: B. Khefifi (21').

The match was played at Stade 2 Mars in Safāqis.