SS Sfaxien 0–2 AS Gabes: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

SS Sfaxien

FT

0 – 2

AS Gabes

4/22/2021

Ligue 2 · Promotion Round - 2Hammam-Lif Gazon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

SS Sfaxien39%

×Draw29%

AS Gabes32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SS SfaxienExpected goals in this matchAS Gabes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.01

SS Sfaxien

1.14

AS Gabes

1.01

SS Sfaxien creates 13% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 36 away

1.00

creates per match

0.89

1.14

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

SS Sfaxien

1.00

AS Gabes

0.89

allows per match

SS Sfaxien

1.14

AS Gabes

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SS Sfaxien+0.00on par

AS Gabes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SS Sfaxien ↓

AS Gabes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

SS Sfaxien or draw

68%

SS Sfaxien or AS Gabes

71%

Draw or AS Gabes

61%

Winning margin

SS Sfaxien wins by 2+

16%

AS Gabes wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

SS Sfaxien 1+ goals

68%

SS Sfaxien 2+ goals

32%

SS Sfaxien 3+ goals

11%

AS Gabes 1+ goals

64%

AS Gabes 2+ goals

27%

AS Gabes 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

SS Sfaxien (draw refunded)

55%

AS Gabes (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SS Sfaxien at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

AS Gabes away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SS Sfaxien attack 1.00 + AS Gabes defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

AS Gabes attack 0.89 + SS Sfaxien defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

SS Sfaxien scores more

39%

level

29%

AS Gabes scores more

32%

SS Sfaxien at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "SS Sfaxien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff