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SS Reyes vs Sporting Gijón II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

SS Reyes
SS Reyes
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sporting Gijón II
Sporting Gijón II
1/19/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

SS Reyes38%
×Draw30%
Sporting Gijón II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SS Reyes
1.10
Sporting Gijón II
1.00

SS Reyes creates 10% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 27 away

creates per match

SS Reyes
0.88
Sporting Gijón II
0.67

allows per match

SS Reyes
1.33
Sporting Gijón II
1.33

finishing

SS Reyes+0.00on par
Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SS Reyes ↓

Sporting Gijón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

SS Reyes or draw
68%
SS Reyes or Sporting Gijón II
70%
Draw or Sporting Gijón II
62%

Winning margin

SS Reyes wins by 2+
15%
Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

SS Reyes 1+ goals
67%
SS Reyes 2+ goals
30%
SS Reyes 3+ goals
10%
Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals
63%
Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals
26%
Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

SS Reyes (draw refunded)
54%
Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SS Reyes at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

Sporting Gijón II away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SS Reyes attack 0.88 + Sporting Gijón II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.10

Sporting Gijón II attack 0.67 + SS Reyes defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

SS Reyes scores more
38%
level
30%
Sporting Gijón II scores more
32%

SS Reyes at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "SS Reyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SS Reyes vs Sporting Gijón II

SS Reyes beat Sporting Gijón II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 19, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera in San Sebastián de los Reyes.