SS Reyes 3–1 SD Logroñés: Result & Stats

SS Reyes

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

SD Logroñés

César Caneda 50' (OG)

Eneko Jauregi 28', 2'

Jon Ander 79'

12/11/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

SS Reyes39%

×Draw29%

SD Logroñés33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SS ReyesExpected goals in this matchSD Logroñés

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.06

SS Reyes

1.18

SD Logroñés

1.06

SS Reyes creates 11% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 38 away

0.88

creates per match

0.79

1.33

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

SS Reyes

0.88

SD Logroñés

0.79

allows per match

SS Reyes

1.33

SD Logroñés

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SS Reyes+0.00on par

SD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SS Reyes ↓

SD Logroñés →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

SS Reyes or draw

67%

SS Reyes or SD Logroñés

71%

Draw or SD Logroñés

61%

Winning margin

SS Reyes wins by 2+

16%

SD Logroñés wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

SS Reyes 1+ goals

69%

SS Reyes 2+ goals

33%

SS Reyes 3+ goals

12%

SD Logroñés 1+ goals

65%

SD Logroñés 2+ goals

29%

SD Logroñés 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

SS Reyes (draw refunded)

54%

SD Logroñés (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SS Reyes at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

SD Logroñés away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.47 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SS Reyes attack 0.88 + SD Logroñés defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.18

SD Logroñés attack 0.79 + SS Reyes defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

SS Reyes scores more

39%

level

29%

SD Logroñés scores more

33%

SS Reyes at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "SS Reyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

Eneko Jauregi

18'

Emilio Lozano← Diego Esteban

28'

Eneko Jauregi

35'

C. Barreda

41'

Javito

45'

P. S. Lopez

50'

César CanedaOwn goal

60'

Jime← Carlos Portero

60'

Raúl Hernández← Arturo

62'

E. Lozano

66'

Carlos Calderón← Javito Pascual

66'

Xiker Ozerinjauregi← César Caneda

71'

Fer Llorente← Baró Moreno

71'

Juanra← Dani Molina

73'

E. Jauregi

78'

Ander El Haddadi← Dani Sandoval

78'

Sergio Cordovín← Mario Soberón

79'

Jon Ander

80'

Javier Rueda← Eneko Jauregi

90+1'

C. Barreda

90+1'

C. Barreda

SS

SD

Castillo

🥅

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▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Jauregi

Manager: Marcos Jiménez

60'▲Jime←▼Carlos Portero

60'▲Raúl Hernández←▼Arturo

71'▲Fer Llorente←▼Baró Moreno

71'▲Juanra←▼Dani Molina

80'▲Javier Rueda←▼Eneko Jauregi

SS Reyes substitutes

JimeHernándezLlorenteJuanraRuedaPedrazaLlamasAndrésGonzález

Manager: Raúl Llona

18'▲Emilio Lozano←▼Diego Esteban

66'▲Carlos Calderón←▼Javito Pascual

66'▲Xiker Ozerinjauregi←▼César Caneda

78'▲Ander El Haddadi←▼Dani Sandoval

78'▲Sergio Cordovín←▼Mario Soberón

SD Logroñés substitutes

LozanoCalderónOzerinjauregiHaddadiCordovínOchoaLarioLlàcerPirri

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: SS Reyes 3–1 SD Logroñés

SS Reyes beat SD Logroñés 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 11, 2021.

Goals: Eneko Jauregi (2', 28'), César Caneda (50' o.g.), Jon Ander (79').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera in San Sebastián de los Reyes.

SS Reyes vs SD Logroñés — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: SS Reyes 3–1 SD Logroñés