SS Reyes 1–1 Real Valladolid II: Result & Stats

SS Reyes

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Real Valladolid II

Jime 22'

Lucas Rosa 35'

5/1/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 34Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

SS Reyes36%

×Draw27%

Real Valladolid II36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SS ReyesExpected goals in this matchReal Valladolid II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

SS Reyes

1.25

Real Valladolid II

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 31 away

0.88

creates per match

1.16

1.33

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

SS Reyes

0.88

Real Valladolid II

1.16

allows per match

SS Reyes

1.33

Real Valladolid II

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SS Reyes+0.00on par

Real Valladolid II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SS Reyes ↓

Real Valladolid II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

SS Reyes or draw

64%

SS Reyes or Real Valladolid II

73%

Draw or Real Valladolid II

64%

Winning margin

SS Reyes wins by 2+

16%

Real Valladolid II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

SS Reyes 1+ goals

71%

SS Reyes 2+ goals

36%

SS Reyes 3+ goals

13%

Real Valladolid II 1+ goals

71%

Real Valladolid II 2+ goals

36%

Real Valladolid II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

SS Reyes (draw refunded)

50%

Real Valladolid II (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SS Reyes at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

Real Valladolid II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SS Reyes attack 0.88 + Real Valladolid II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.25

Real Valladolid II attack 1.16 + SS Reyes defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

SS Reyes scores more

36%

level

27%

Real Valladolid II scores more

36%

SS Reyes at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "SS Reyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

33'

35'

38'

40'

55'

Raúl Hernández← Fer Llorente

78'

F. Lopez

78'

Ato← Dani Molina

78'

Javier Rueda← Carlos Barreda

85'

Diego Moreno← Sergio Nieto

85'

Palomeque← Mario Maroto

85'

Roberto Arroyo← Víctor Narro

86'

90+3'

90+3'

90+4'

90+6'

90+1'

Dali← Lucas Rosa

SS

Real

Aceves

Erimuya

▼

Nieto

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Jime

Manager: Lobo Martínez

55'▲Raúl Hernández←▼Fer Llorente

78'▲Ato←▼Dani Molina

78'▲Javier Rueda←▼Carlos Barreda

86'▲José Guarch←▼Jime

SS Reyes substitutes

HernándezAtoRuedaGuarchAguilarLlerenaAndrésGonzálezLópez

Manager: Júlio Baptista

85'▲Diego Moreno←▼Sergio Nieto

85'▲Palomeque←▼Mario Maroto

85'▲Roberto Arroyo←▼Víctor Narro

90+1'▲Dali←▼Lucas Rosa

Real Valladolid II substitutes

MorenoPalomequeArroyoDaliApaCanitoCastriJoséRiveraAmoahRíosMeykher