SS Reyes 0–2 Real Unión: Result & Stats

SS Reyes

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Real Unión

D. Temenuzhkov 90'

Mikel Pradera 42'

11/7/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

SS Reyes39%

×Draw27%

Real Unión34%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SS ReyesExpected goals in this matchReal Unión

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.16

SS Reyes

1.27

Real Unión

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 56 away

0.88

creates per match

0.98

1.33

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

SS Reyes

0.88

Real Unión

0.98

allows per match

SS Reyes

1.33

Real Unión

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SS Reyes+0.00on par

Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SS Reyes ↓

Real Unión →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

SS Reyes or draw

66%

SS Reyes or Real Unión

73%

Draw or Real Unión

61%

Winning margin

SS Reyes wins by 2+

17%

Real Unión wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

SS Reyes 1+ goals

72%

SS Reyes 2+ goals

36%

SS Reyes 3+ goals

14%

Real Unión 1+ goals

69%

Real Unión 2+ goals

32%

Real Unión 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

SS Reyes (draw refunded)

54%

Real Unión (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SS Reyes at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.66 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SS Reyes attack 0.88 + Real Unión defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.27

Real Unión attack 0.98 + SS Reyes defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

SS Reyes scores more

39%

level

27%

Real Unión scores more

34%

SS Reyes at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "SS Reyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

26'

36'

42'

45'

46'

Javier Rueda← Alfredo Pedraza

49'

J. Rueda

59'

Arturo← Eneko Jauregi

59'

Carlos Portero← Gonzalo Llerena

59'

Iván Pérez← Mario González

68'

Q. Rivero

74'

Alain Oyarzun← Chema Núñez

74'

D. Temenuzhkov← Mikel Pradera

77'

G. Kijera

84'

Baró Moreno← Borja Giner

84'

Elizondo← Ekhi Senar

84'

Mario Capelete← Nacho Sánchez

90'

C. Barreda

90'

A. Elizondo

90'

Elosegi← Aitor Seguín

90'

D. Temenuzhkov

SS

Real

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Marcos Jiménez

46'▲Javier Rueda←▼Alfredo Pedraza

59'▲Arturo←▼Eneko Jauregi

59'▲Carlos Portero←▼Gonzalo Llerena

59'▲Iván Pérez←▼Mario González

84'▲Baró Moreno←▼Borja Giner

SS Reyes substitutes

RuedaArturoPorteroPérezMorenoLlamasAndrés

Manager: Aitor Zulaika

74'▲Alain Oyarzun←▼Chema Núñez

74'▲D. Temenuzhkov←▼Mikel Pradera

84'▲Elizondo←▼Ekhi Senar

84'▲Mario Capelete←▼Nacho Sánchez

90'▲Elosegi←▼Aitor Seguín

Real Unión substitutes

OyarzunTemenuzhkovElizondoCapeleteElosegiRuizArzuagaSequeiraVivancos

Match Recap: SS Reyes vs Real Unión

Real Unión beat SS Reyes 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 7, 2021.

Goals: Mikel Pradera (42'), D. Temenuzhkov (90').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera in San Sebastián de los Reyes.

SS Reyes vs Real Unión — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: SS Reyes vs Real Unión