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SS Reyes vs Rayo Majadahonda — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

SS Reyes
SS Reyes
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
9/12/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

SS Reyes36%
×Draw28%
Rayo Majadahonda35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SS Reyes
1.17
Rayo Majadahonda
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 72 away

creates per match

SS Reyes
0.88
Rayo Majadahonda
0.96

allows per match

SS Reyes
1.33
Rayo Majadahonda
1.46

finishing

SS Reyes+0.00on par
Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SS Reyes ↓

Rayo Majadahonda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

SS Reyes or draw
65%
SS Reyes or Rayo Majadahonda
72%
Draw or Rayo Majadahonda
64%

Winning margin

SS Reyes wins by 2+
15%
Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

SS Reyes 1+ goals
69%
SS Reyes 2+ goals
33%
SS Reyes 3+ goals
11%
Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
68%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
32%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SS Reyes (draw refunded)
51%
Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SS Reyes at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

Rayo Majadahonda away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SS Reyes attack 0.88 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.17

Rayo Majadahonda attack 0.96 + SS Reyes defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

SS Reyes scores more
36%
level
28%
Rayo Majadahonda scores more
35%

SS Reyes at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "SS Reyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: SS Reyes 2–1 Rayo Majadahonda

SS Reyes beat Rayo Majadahonda 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera in San Sebastián de los Reyes.