SS Reyes 1–0 Mérida AD: Result & Stats

SS Reyes

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mérida AD

11/6/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

SS Reyes34%

×Draw29%

Mérida AD37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SS ReyesExpected goals in this matchMérida AD

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.13

SS Reyes

1.07

Mérida AD

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 37 away

0.88

creates per match

0.92

1.33

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

SS Reyes

0.88

Mérida AD

0.92

allows per match

SS Reyes

1.33

Mérida AD

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SS Reyes+0.00on par

Mérida AD+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SS Reyes ↓

Mérida AD →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

SS Reyes or draw

63%

SS Reyes or Mérida AD

71%

Draw or Mérida AD

66%

Winning margin

SS Reyes wins by 2+

13%

Mérida AD wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

SS Reyes 1+ goals

66%

SS Reyes 2+ goals

29%

SS Reyes 3+ goals

9%

Mérida AD 1+ goals

68%

Mérida AD 2+ goals

31%

Mérida AD 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

SS Reyes (draw refunded)

48%

Mérida AD (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SS Reyes at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

Mérida AD away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SS Reyes attack 0.88 + Mérida AD defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.07

Mérida AD attack 0.92 + SS Reyes defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

SS Reyes scores more

34%

level

29%

Mérida AD scores more

37%

Mérida AD at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mérida AD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff