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SS Reyes vs Marino de Luanco — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

SS Reyes
SS Reyes
CANC
00:00
Marino de Luanco
Marino de Luanco
3/29/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 31Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

SS Reyes43%
×Draw28%
Marino de Luanco29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SS Reyes
1.28
Marino de Luanco
1.01

SS Reyes creates 27% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 26 away

creates per match

SS Reyes
0.88
Marino de Luanco
0.69

allows per match

SS Reyes
1.33
Marino de Luanco
1.69

finishing

SS Reyes+0.00on par
Marino de Luanco+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SS Reyes ↓

Marino de Luanco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

SS Reyes or draw
71%
SS Reyes or Marino de Luanco
72%
Draw or Marino de Luanco
57%

Winning margin

SS Reyes wins by 2+
19%
Marino de Luanco wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

SS Reyes 1+ goals
72%
SS Reyes 2+ goals
37%
SS Reyes 3+ goals
14%
Marino de Luanco 1+ goals
64%
Marino de Luanco 2+ goals
27%
Marino de Luanco 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

SS Reyes (draw refunded)
59%
Marino de Luanco (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SS Reyes at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

Marino de Luanco away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.69 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SS Reyes attack 0.88 + Marino de Luanco defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.28

Marino de Luanco attack 0.69 + SS Reyes defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SS Reyes scores more
43%
level
28%
Marino de Luanco scores more
29%

SS Reyes at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SS Reyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: SS Reyes host Marino de Luanco

March 29, 2020: SS Reyes take on Marino de Luanco in Primera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

SS Reyes host Marino de Luanco at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.