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SS Reyes vs Linares Deportivo — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

SS Reyes
SS Reyes
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Linares Deportivo
Linares Deportivo
5/20/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 37Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

SS Reyes38%
×Draw27%
Linares Deportivo35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SS Reyes
1.30
Linares Deportivo
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 18 away

creates per match

SS Reyes
0.88
Linares Deportivo
1.17

allows per match

SS Reyes
1.33
Linares Deportivo
1.72

finishing

SS Reyes+0.00on par
Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SS Reyes ↓

Linares Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

SS Reyes or draw
65%
SS Reyes or Linares Deportivo
73%
Draw or Linares Deportivo
62%

Winning margin

SS Reyes wins by 2+
17%
Linares Deportivo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

SS Reyes 1+ goals
73%
SS Reyes 2+ goals
37%
SS Reyes 3+ goals
14%
Linares Deportivo 1+ goals
71%
Linares Deportivo 2+ goals
36%
Linares Deportivo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

SS Reyes (draw refunded)
52%
Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SS Reyes at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SS Reyes attack 0.88 + Linares Deportivo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.30

Linares Deportivo attack 1.17 + SS Reyes defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

SS Reyes scores more
38%
level
27%
Linares Deportivo scores more
35%

SS Reyes at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "SS Reyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SS Reyes vs Linares Deportivo

SS Reyes beat Linares Deportivo 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera in San Sebastián de los Reyes.