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SS Reyes vs Getafe II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

SS Reyes
SS Reyes
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Getafe II
Getafe II
3/1/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 27Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

SS Reyes39%
×Draw28%
Getafe II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SS Reyes
1.23
Getafe II
1.09

SS Reyes creates 13% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 14 away

creates per match

SS Reyes
0.88
Getafe II
0.86

allows per match

SS Reyes
1.33
Getafe II
1.57

finishing

SS Reyes+0.00on par
Getafe II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SS Reyes ↓

Getafe II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

SS Reyes or draw
68%
SS Reyes or Getafe II
72%
Draw or Getafe II
61%

Winning margin

SS Reyes wins by 2+
17%
Getafe II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

SS Reyes 1+ goals
71%
SS Reyes 2+ goals
35%
SS Reyes 3+ goals
13%
Getafe II 1+ goals
66%
Getafe II 2+ goals
30%
Getafe II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

SS Reyes (draw refunded)
55%
Getafe II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SS Reyes at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

Getafe II away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SS Reyes attack 0.88 + Getafe II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.23

Getafe II attack 0.86 + SS Reyes defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

SS Reyes scores more
39%
level
28%
Getafe II scores more
32%

SS Reyes at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "SS Reyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SS Reyes vs Getafe II

SS Reyes and Getafe II drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera in San Sebastián de los Reyes.