Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SS Reyes vs Extremadura — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

SS Reyes
SS Reyes
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Extremadura
Extremadura
5/2/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 5Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2nd Phase - 5Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

SS Reyes44%
×Draw28%
Extremadura28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SS Reyes
1.29
Extremadura
0.96

SS Reyes creates 34% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

creates per match

SS Reyes
1.42
Extremadura
1.08

allows per match

SS Reyes
0.83
Extremadura
1.17

finishing

SS Reyes+0.00on par
Extremadura+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SS Reyes ↓

Extremadura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

SS Reyes or draw
72%
SS Reyes or Extremadura
72%
Draw or Extremadura
56%

Winning margin

SS Reyes wins by 2+
20%
Extremadura wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SS Reyes 1+ goals
72%
SS Reyes 2+ goals
37%
SS Reyes 3+ goals
14%
Extremadura 1+ goals
62%
Extremadura 2+ goals
25%
Extremadura 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

SS Reyes (draw refunded)
61%
Extremadura (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SS Reyes at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Extremadura away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SS Reyes attack 1.42 + Extremadura defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.29

Extremadura attack 1.08 + SS Reyes defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

SS Reyes scores more
44%
level
28%
Extremadura scores more
28%

SS Reyes at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "SS Reyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SS Reyes vs Extremadura

SS Reyes beat Extremadura 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on May 2, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera in San Sebastián de los Reyes.