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SS Reyes vs Atlético Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

SS Reyes
SS Reyes
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
2/15/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

SS Reyes28%
×Draw27%
Atlético Madrid II45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SS Reyes
1.05
Atlético Madrid II
1.40

Atlético Madrid II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 13 away

creates per match

SS Reyes
0.88
Atlético Madrid II
1.46

allows per match

SS Reyes
1.33
Atlético Madrid II
1.23

finishing

SS Reyes+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SS Reyes ↓

Atlético Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

SS Reyes or draw
55%
SS Reyes or Atlético Madrid II
73%
Draw or Atlético Madrid II
72%

Winning margin

SS Reyes wins by 2+
11%
Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

SS Reyes 1+ goals
65%
SS Reyes 2+ goals
28%
SS Reyes 3+ goals
9%
Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
75%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
41%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

SS Reyes (draw refunded)
39%
Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SS Reyes at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SS Reyes attack 0.88 + Atlético Madrid II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.05

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.46 + SS Reyes defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

SS Reyes scores more
28%
level
27%
Atlético Madrid II scores more
45%

Atlético Madrid II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atlético Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SS Reyes vs Atlético Madrid II

Atlético Madrid II beat SS Reyes 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 15, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera in San Sebastián de los Reyes.