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SS Reyes vs Alcorcon — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

SS Reyes
SS Reyes
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alcorcon
Alcorcon
10/8/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

SS Reyes23%
×Draw29%
Alcorcon48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SS Reyes
0.81
Alcorcon
1.29

Alcorcon creates 59% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 19 away

creates per match

SS Reyes
0.88
Alcorcon
1.26

allows per match

SS Reyes
1.33
Alcorcon
0.74

finishing

SS Reyes+0.00on par
Alcorcon+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SS Reyes ↓

Alcorcon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

SS Reyes or draw
52%
SS Reyes or Alcorcon
71%
Draw or Alcorcon
77%

Winning margin

SS Reyes wins by 2+
7%
Alcorcon wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

SS Reyes 1+ goals
56%
SS Reyes 2+ goals
19%
SS Reyes 3+ goals
5%
Alcorcon 1+ goals
72%
Alcorcon 2+ goals
37%
Alcorcon 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

SS Reyes (draw refunded)
33%
Alcorcon (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SS Reyes at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

Alcorcon away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SS Reyes attack 0.88 + Alcorcon defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.81

Alcorcon attack 1.26 + SS Reyes defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

SS Reyes scores more
23%
level
29%
Alcorcon scores more
48%

Alcorcon at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Alcorcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SS Reyes vs Alcorcon

SS Reyes beat Alcorcon 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera in San Sebastián de los Reyes.