SS Reyes II 1–2 Las Rozas: Result & Stats

SS Reyes II

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Las Rozas

9/14/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 2Estadio Municipal Nuevo Matapiñonera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SS Reyes II41%

×Draw29%

Las Rozas31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SS Reyes IIExpected goals in this matchLas Rozas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.02

SS Reyes II

1.22

Las Rozas

1.02

SS Reyes II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 88 away

1.29

creates per match

1.23

0.82

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

SS Reyes II

1.29

Las Rozas

1.23

allows per match

SS Reyes II

0.82

Las Rozas

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SS Reyes II+0.00on par

Las Rozas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SS Reyes II ↓

Las Rozas →

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

SS Reyes II or draw

69%

SS Reyes II or Las Rozas

71%

Draw or Las Rozas

59%

Winning margin

SS Reyes II wins by 2+

18%

Las Rozas wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

SS Reyes II 1+ goals

70%

SS Reyes II 2+ goals

34%

SS Reyes II 3+ goals

12%

Las Rozas 1+ goals

64%

Las Rozas 2+ goals

27%

Las Rozas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

SS Reyes II (draw refunded)

57%

Las Rozas (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

SS Reyes II at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Las Rozas away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.15 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

SS Reyes II attack 1.29 + Las Rozas defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.22

Las Rozas attack 1.23 + SS Reyes II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

SS Reyes II scores more

41%

level

29%

Las Rozas scores more

31%

SS Reyes II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "SS Reyes II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff