SS Monopoli 1–3 Giana Erminio: Result & Stats

SS Monopoli

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Giana Erminio

N. Bruschi 50' (pen)

D. Stückler 77'

M. Marotta 65'

M. Tirelli 57'

5/14/2025

Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - 3rd RoundStadio Vito Simone Veneziani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

SS Monopoli24%

×Draw25%

Giana Erminio51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SS MonopoliExpected goals in this matchGiana Erminio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.58

SS Monopoli

1.00

Giana Erminio

1.58

Giana Erminio creates 58% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

0.67

creates per match

1.50

1.67

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

SS Monopoli

0.67

Giana Erminio

1.50

allows per match

SS Monopoli

1.67

Giana Erminio

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SS Monopoli+0.00on par

Giana Erminio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SS Monopoli ↓

Giana Erminio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

SS Monopoli or draw

49%

SS Monopoli or Giana Erminio

75%

Draw or Giana Erminio

76%

Winning margin

SS Monopoli wins by 2+

9%

Giana Erminio wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

SS Monopoli 1+ goals

63%

SS Monopoli 2+ goals

26%

SS Monopoli 3+ goals

8%

Giana Erminio 1+ goals

79%

Giana Erminio 2+ goals

47%

Giana Erminio 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

SS Monopoli (draw refunded)

32%

Giana Erminio (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SS Monopoli at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Giana Erminio away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SS Monopoli attack 0.67 + Giana Erminio defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Giana Erminio attack 1.50 + SS Monopoli defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

SS Monopoli scores more

24%

level

25%

Giana Erminio scores more

51%

Giana Erminio at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Giana Erminio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

22'

37'

43'

43'

45'

46'

C. Battocchio← C. De Risio

46'

N. Previtali← V. De Maria

50'

M. Scaringi

50'

N. BruschiPenalty

57'

M. Tirelli

60'

M. Colombara← M. Scaringi

61'

J. Greco← D. Bulevardi

61'

C. Cristallo← B. Valenti

65'

M. Marotta

66'

J. Pellegrini← F. Grandolfo

71'

D. Pinto← M. Marotta

71'

A. Capelli← M. Tirelli

77'

D. Stückler

79'

M. Ballabio← L. Caferri

81'

S. Calvano← N. Bruschi

SS

Giana

22

Mangiapoc

6

Ferri

27

Alborghet

18

▼

Maria

23

▼

Caferri

47

▼

Scaringi

14

⚽

▼

Marotta

4

Nichetti

10

Lamesta

9

⚽

▼

Tirelli

19

⚽

1

4

27

77

3

16

▼

Valenti

19

▼

Risio

32

Falzerano

10

▼

Bulevardi

9

▼

Grandolfo

98

⚽

▼

Bruschi

Manager: A. Colombo

46'▲C. Battocchio←▼C. De Risio

61'▲J. Greco←▼D. Bulevardi

61'▲C. Cristallo←▼B. Valenti

66'▲J. Pellegrini←▼F. Grandolfo

81'▲S. Calvano←▼N. Bruschi

SS Monopoli substitutes

8Battocchio15Greco17Cristallo7Pellegrini23Calvano12Albertazzi18Virgilio21Scipioni29Sylla31Silvestris71Cellamare

Manager: A. Chiappella

46'▲N. Previtali←▼V. De Maria

60'▲M. Colombara←▼M. Scaringi

71'▲D. Pinto←▼M. Marotta

71'▲A. Capelli←▼M. Tirelli

79'▲M. Ballabio←▼L. Caferri

Giana Erminio substitutes

26Previtali13Colombara7Pinto11Capelli15Ballabio1Pirola8Montipò12Buzzi17Avinci21Pala30Ledonne37Bassanini77Piazza99Renda