Sri Lanka 1–1 Maldives: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Sri Lanka

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Maldives

O. Kelaart 90'

H. Naiz 67'

9/9/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 3Race Course International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sri Lanka50%

×Draw23%

Maldives27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sri LankaExpected goals in this matchMaldives

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.29

Sri Lanka

1.83

Maldives

1.29

Sri Lanka creates 42% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

1.50

creates per match

1.33

1.25

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Sri Lanka

1.50

Maldives

1.33

allows per match

Sri Lanka

1.25

Maldives

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sri Lanka+0.00on par

Maldives+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sri Lanka ↓

Maldives →

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Sri Lanka or draw

73%

Sri Lanka or Maldives

77%

Draw or Maldives

50%

Winning margin

Sri Lanka wins by 2+

28%

Maldives wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sri Lanka 1+ goals

84%

Sri Lanka 2+ goals

54%

Sri Lanka 3+ goals

28%

Maldives 1+ goals

72%

Maldives 2+ goals

37%

Maldives 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sri Lanka (draw refunded)

65%

Maldives (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sri Lanka at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Maldives away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sri Lanka attack 1.50 + Maldives defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.83

Maldives attack 1.33 + Sri Lanka defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sri Lanka scores more

50%

level

23%

Maldives scores more

27%

Sri Lanka at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sri Lanka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

67'

H. Naiz

90'

O. Kelaart

Sri

Maldives

Manager: Andrew Charles Morrison

Manager: Ali Suzain