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Sri Lanka vs Bhutan — Friendlies 2026

Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bhutan
Bhutan
3/25/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Race Course International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sri Lanka72%
×Draw17%
Bhutan11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sri Lanka
2.46
Bhutan
0.85

Sri Lanka creates 189% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Sri Lanka
1.13
Bhutan
0.33

allows per match

Sri Lanka
1.38
Bhutan
3.78

finishing

Sri Lanka+0.00on par
Bhutan+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sri Lanka ↓

Bhutan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Sri Lanka or draw
89%
Sri Lanka or Bhutan
83%
Draw or Bhutan
28%

Winning margin

Sri Lanka wins by 2+
50%
Bhutan wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sri Lanka 1+ goals
91%
Sri Lanka 2+ goals
70%
Sri Lanka 3+ goals
44%
Bhutan 1+ goals
57%
Bhutan 2+ goals
21%
Bhutan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sri Lanka (draw refunded)
87%
Bhutan (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sri Lanka at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Bhutan away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sri Lanka attack 1.13 + Bhutan defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.46

Bhutan attack 0.33 + Sri Lanka defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Sri Lanka scores more
72%
level
17%
Bhutan scores more
11%

Sri Lanka at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Sri Lanka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sri Lanka vs Bhutan

Sri Lanka beat Bhutan 2-0 in Friendlies on March 25, 2024.

The match was played at Race Course International Stadium in Colombo.